– continued focus on competitiveness
SpareBank 1 SR-Bank’s business survey
Feedback from 600 businesses in SR-Bank’s market area in South-West Norway, counties: Rogaland, Hordaland and Agder
Business survey including: Devleopment last 12 months compared to previous 12 months and businesses expectations the coming 12 months.
Kyrre M. Knudsen, Chief Economist SpareBank 1 SR-Bank
The main index has increased significantly during the spring. The index has risen from 54 to 59%. This implies that there is a clear majority of companies expecting growth the coming year. All sub-indices indicate an increase, with highest growth expectations in turnover and a marked rise for both employment plans and order backlog. The index measuring actual development last 12 months has also risen to a positive level and indicates that the oil decline is behind us.
From oil decline to oil optimism
Companies with high oil exposure have had very demanding times, and the current situation remains demanding. However, the expectations has changed significantly. Whereas they expected decline in previous measurements (43%), the expectations have improved and these companies now expect growth the coming 12 months (59%). More diversified oil companies showed clear improvement already from autumn 2016. Currently the outlook is roughly
the same (index close to 60%) for companies with different degrees of oil turnover (none, low, medium and high)
Equal growth expectations in the counties
Rogaland county has the highest oil exposure. The improvement among companies with high oil-related turnover has provided a significant boost for Rogaland. Businesses in Rogaland now seems to have adjusted to an oil price of around USD 50 per barrel. Agder and Hordaland counties also have oil-related businesses, but are more diversified with a larger proportion of business sectors benefiting from weak foreign exchange rate (seafood, traditional exports and tourism).
Targets and estimates 2017
Return on equity 11 %
CET 1 capital ratio 15 %
Growth in loans 2,0 - 4,0 %
Normalised growth in costs 2%
Impairment losses 600-800 mill. NOK
Dividend share >35%